Assured Guaranty Valuation
| AGO Stock | USD 86.55 0.90 1.05% |
At this time, the firm appears to be undervalued. Assured Guaranty shows a prevailing Real Value of $96.96 per share. The current price of the firm is $86.55. Our model approximates the value of Assured Guaranty from analyzing the firm fundamentals such as Profit Margin of 0.44 %, current valuation of 5.49 B, and Return On Equity of 0.0741 as well as examining its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy. Key fundamental drivers impacting Assured Guaranty's valuation include:
Undervalued
Today
Please note that Assured Guaranty's price fluctuation is very steady at this time. Calculation of the real value of Assured Guaranty is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Assured Guaranty's time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
Since Assured Guaranty is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Assured Stock. However, Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value. | Historical | Market 86.55 | Real 96.96 | Target 107.0 | Hype 86.24 |
The intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence Assured Guaranty's stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Assured Guaranty helps investors to forecast how Assured stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Assured Guaranty more accurately as focusing exclusively on Assured Guaranty's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors: Traditionally, analysts and sophisticated investors use multiple methods for valuing a cash-flow-generating entity or its stock. For example, some money managers use Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value based on its ongoing forecasts of Assured Guaranty's financial statements. In contrast, other private, professional wealth advisors use a multiplier approach by looking to relative value analysis against Assured Guaranty's closest peers.
Assured Guaranty Cash |
|
Assured Revenue by Product
Assured Guaranty Total Value Analysis
Assured Guaranty is presently forecasted to have company total value of 5.49 B with market capitalization of 4.12 B, debt of 1.7 B, and cash on hands of 1.44 B. Please note that company total value may be misleading and is a subject to accounting gimmicks. We encourage investors to carefully check all of the Assured Guaranty fundamentals before making security assessment based on enterprise value of the company| Takeover Price | Market Cap | Debt Obligations | Cash |
5.49 B | 4.12 B | 1.7 B | 1.44 B |
Assured Guaranty Investor Information
About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.7. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Assured Guaranty has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.52. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.25. The firm last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2025. Assured Guaranty had 1:5 split on the December 3, 2010. Based on the key measurements obtained from Assured Guaranty's financial statements, Assured Guaranty may be sliding down financialy. It has an above-average chance of going through some form of financial crunch next quarter.| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Profit Margin | 0.45 | 0.54 |
|
| |||||
| Operating Income | 557.7 M | 561.2 M |
|
|
Assured Guaranty Asset Utilization
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Assured Guaranty has an asset utilization ratio of 6.84 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.0684 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Assured Guaranty is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.Assured Guaranty Profitability Analysis
Based on the key profitability measurements obtained from Assured Guaranty's financial statements, Assured Guaranty's profitability may be sliding down. It has an above-average chance of reporting lower numbers next quarter. Profitability indicators assess Assured Guaranty's ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.Net Income | First Reported 2002-12-31 | Previous Quarter 103 M | Current Value 105 M | Quarterly Volatility 177.6 M |
| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.6 | 0.91 |
|
| |||||
| Net Profit Margin | 0.35 | 0.42 |
|
| |||||
| Operating Profit Margin | 0.45 | 0.54 |
|
| |||||
| Pretax Profit Margin | 0.45 | 0.54 |
|
| |||||
| Return On Assets | 0.0396 | 0.0363 |
|
| |||||
| Return On Equity | 0.068 | 0.0616 |
|
|
For Assured Guaranty profitability analysis, we use financial ratios and fundamental drivers that measure the ability of Assured Guaranty to generate income relative to revenue, assets, operating costs, and current equity. These fundamental indicators attest to how well Assured Guaranty utilizes its assets to generate profit and value for its shareholders. The profitability module also shows relationships between Assured Guaranty's most relevant fundamental drivers. It provides multiple suggestions of what could affect the performance of Assured Guaranty over time as well as its relative position and ranking within its peers.
Assured Guaranty Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual
The next projected EPS of Assured Guaranty is estimated to be 1.81125 with future projections ranging from a low of 1.7125 to a high of 1.9275. Assured Guaranty's most recent 12-month trailing earnings per share (EPS TTM) is at 8.25. Please be aware that the consensus of earnings estimates for Assured Guaranty is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.Assured Guaranty Earnings Estimation Breakdown
The calculation of Assured Guaranty's earning per share is based on the data from the past 12 consecutive months, used for reporting the company's financial figures. The next projected EPS of Assured Guaranty is estimated to be 1.81125 with the future projection ranging from a low of 1.7125 to a high of 1.9275. Please be aware that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for Assured Guaranty is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.Last Reported EPS
1.71 Lowest | Expected EPS | 1.93 Highest |
Assured Guaranty Earnings Projection Consensus
Suppose the current estimates of Assured Guaranty's value are higher than the current market price of the Assured Guaranty stock. In this case, investors may conclude that Assured Guaranty is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and Assured Guaranty's stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
| Number of Analysts | Historical Accuracy | Last Reported EPS | Estimated EPS for 31st of December 2026 | Current EPS (TTM) | |
| 4 | 53.72% | 0.0 | 1.81125 | 8.25 |
Assured Guaranty Ownership Allocation
Assured Guaranty holds a total of 46.11 Million outstanding shares. The majority of Assured Guaranty outstanding shares are owned by other corporate entities. These outside corporations are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to acquire positions in Assured Guaranty to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, institutional investors are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in Assured Guaranty. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of Assured Guaranty as this could imply that something significant has changed or is about to change at the company. Also note that nearly one million five hundred fifty-three thousand eight hundred seventy-seven invesors are currently shorting Assured Guaranty expressing very little confidence in its future performance.Assured Guaranty Profitability Analysis
The company reported the last year's revenue of 814 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 376 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 823 M.Assured Guaranty Past Distributions to stockholders
About Assured Guaranty Valuation
We use absolute and relative valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Assured Guaranty based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Assured Guaranty's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and their related drivers, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Assured Guaranty. We calculate exposure to Assured Guaranty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of Assured Guaranty's related companies.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Gross Profit | 943 M | 824 M | |
| Pretax Profit Margin | 0.54 | 0.45 | |
| Operating Profit Margin | 0.54 | 0.45 | |
| Net Profit Margin | 0.42 | 0.35 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.91 | 0.60 |
Assured Guaranty Quarterly Retained Earnings |
|
A single share of Assured Guaranty represents a small ownership stake in the entity. As a stockholder of Assured, your percentage of company ownership is determined by dividing the number of shares you own by the total number of shares outstanding and then multiplying that amount by 100. Owning stock in a company generally confers both corporate voting rights and income from any dividends paid to the stock owner.
Assured Guaranty Dividends Analysis For Valuation
As of the 11th of February 2026, Dividends Paid is likely to drop to about 52.3 M. In addition to that, Dividend Yield is likely to drop to 0.01. As of the 11th of February 2026, Earnings Yield is likely to grow to 0.09, while Retained Earnings are likely to drop about 3.5 B.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Dividends Paid | 78.2 M | 52.3 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.16 | 0.12 | |
| Dividend Paid And Capex Coverage Ratio | 0.79 | 0.76 |
There are various types of dividends Assured Guaranty can pay to its shareholders, and the actual value of the dividend is determined on a per-share basis. It is to be paid equally to all of Assured shareholders on a specific date, known as the payable date. The cash dividend is the most common type of dividend payment - it is the payment of actual cash from Assured Guaranty directly to its shareholders. There are other types of dividends that companies can issue, such as stock dividends or asset dividends. When Assured pays a dividend, it has no impact on its enterprise value. It does, however, lowers the Equity Value of Assured Guaranty by the value of the dividends paid out.
Assured Guaranty Growth Indicators
Growth stocks usually refer to those companies expected to grow sales and earnings faster than the market average. Growth stocks typically don't pay dividends, often look expensive, and usually trading at a high P/E ratio. Nevertheless, such valuations could be relatively cheap if the company continues to grow, which will drive the share price up. However, since most investors are paying a high price for a growth stock, based on expectations, if those expectations are not fully realized, growth stocks can see dramatic declines.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.3 M | |
| Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y | -0.312 | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 11.8906 |
Assured Guaranty Current Valuation Indicators
Assured Guaranty's valuation analysis is a process of estimating the intrinsic value of all assets and outstanding equities. There are different methodologies and models we use to develop the final Assured Guaranty's valuation. The techniques such as discounted cash flow and fundamental indicators such as book value per share or market capitalization are well known and widely used across most financial advisers and money managers.
Valuations are an essential part of business, for companies themselves, but also for investors. For companies, such as Assured Guaranty, valuations can help measure their progress and success and can help them track their performance in the market compared to others. In addition, investors can use Assured Guaranty's valuations to help determine the worth of potential investments. They can do this by using data and information made public by a company. Regardless of who the valuation is for, it essentially describes Assured Guaranty's worth.When determining whether Assured Guaranty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Assured Guaranty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Assured Guaranty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Assured Guaranty Stock: Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Assured Guaranty. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Assured diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Assured Guaranty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Dividend Share 1.33 | Earnings Share 8.25 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
Investors evaluate Assured Guaranty using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Assured Guaranty's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Assured Guaranty's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Assured Guaranty represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Assured Guaranty's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.